Planning and Forecasting - Part 1 - Headed for the Future

Every supply chain program, good or bad, launches from a plan. It's the ability to forecast and analyze product demand, consumer buying patterns, and economic trends that separates the winners from the losers. In reality, any kind of a forecast is going to involve the mystical black arts of predicting the future, a process that inevitably will result in some errors even under the best circumstances. It's not an issue of what happens if a forecast goes wrong—it's more an issue of by how much.

Although the history of supply chain management is fairly recent, it includes some notoriously bad plans—plans so far off the mark that they've become legendary in the "what were they thinking of?" category. The bigger the company, the more spectacular are its supply chain glitches since the ripple effects can extend well past the four walls of the company to include suppliers and customers.

The main reason companies struggle with their forecasts is the fickleness of the marketplace. Try as hard as they might—and they've been at it for centuries—manufacturers and retailers still haven't been able to consistently figure out exactly how much of something consumers are going to buy. Accurately forecasting product demand is probably the single most important—and most challenging—measure of a company's supply chain proficiency. Improving forecast accuracy has gotten a lot of attention, but as meteorologists have always known, you can be right most of the time, but it's the one time you're wrong that gets a lot of people upset.

When analyst firm AMR Research Inc. studied forecast accuracy at several dozen manufacturers, it turned out— not surprisingly—that errors are very much a fact of life within the supply chain. Forecast errors at bulk chemical producers, for instance, range from 10 percent to 24 percent, for a median error rate of 11 percent. That's actually pretty good, though, since consumer goods companies get it wrong from 14 percent to 40 percent of the time, or an average 26 percent error rate. Consider that for a minute: One time out of every four the forecast is wrong. It's even worse in the high-tech arena. The error rate ranges from an outstanding 4 percent to a horrific 45 percent rate (with a median rate of 28 percent). That's right—at some high-tech companies, they're getting it wrong nearly half of the time.

Supply chain planning coordinates assets to optimize the delivery of goods, services, and information from supplier to customer, balancing supply and demand. Supply chain planning solutions allow companies to create what-if scenarios that weigh real-time demand commitments when developing forecasts.

Case in point: A few years ago, Cisco Systems Inc. had a royal doozy of a glitch, centered squarely on the failure of its supply chain plan. As the leading manufacturer of networking routers and switches, Cisco was one of the most influential companies driving the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. In the spring of 2001, Cisco was riding as high as any high-tech company had ever ridden, having reported a profit for 40 quarters in a row. With a culture that literally knew nothing but growth, naturally enough Cisco's planning systems—which were considered state of the art—kept forecasting more of the same.

Unfortunately, the inevitable bursting of the dot-com bubble happened to coincide with a severe slump in the telecom industry, both of which had a direct impact on Cisco's business. The decade-long uptick had finally peaked, and demand for Cisco's products began to slow. Problem was, the company's supply chain didn't seem to recognize "make less this month than we did last month" as a viable plan. Instead, the planners kept following the system's advice to "make more."

Think about what kind of havoc that can play, not only on Cisco's system inventory but on that of its suppliers as well. Cisco had helped popularize the concept of virtual manufacturing, meaning that outsourced (or contract) suppliers were building the routers and switches and then shipping them direct to Cisco's customers. Now, all of a sudden, Cisco's customers didn't want or need any more networking equipment—in fact, they already had too much. But Cisco's supply chain plan kept steadily insisting, "make more." The most important test of a supply chain plan is accuracy, and it became clear that Cisco was flunking that test.

More on this topic to come....